Is Your Business Ready for Black Friday and Christmas Trading? Insurance Risks Retailers Often Miss
More stock, more staff, more customers, more transactions, all compressed into the shortest, busiest stretch of the retail calendar, one that now effectively starts with Black Friday in late November rather than waiting for December. Every one of those increases is also an increase in exposure, and the risks that actually bite during this period aren’t always the ones retailers spend the most time thinking about. Here’s what the current data says is worth checking before the rush hits.
Retail Theft: Easing Overall, Still Setting Records in Places
The national picture has shifted since last year’s figures: ABS data shows theft victims nationally fell 2 per cent to 581,209 in 2025, the first drop in five years. Retail locations still account for the largest single share, 43 per cent of all theft victims (247,425), though that share has eased slightly as the raw national number has come down.
That national easing doesn’t tell the whole story. In New South Wales specifically, the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research’s March 2026 update recorded retail theft up 9.1 per cent over two years. In Victoria, the Crime Statistics Agency’s most recent release, for the year to 30 June 2026, recorded a record 37,398 steal-from-a-retail-store offences, up 2.3 per cent and equivalent to around 102 theft offences a day, even as total offending across Victorian retail locations eased slightly to 96,008, down from the prior year’s record of around 99,000.
Read together: overall retail crime volume looks to be plateauing nationally and in parts of Victoria, but theft specifically is still climbing in several jurisdictions, and it remains near record levels everywhere.
The part of this data that changes what “theft risk” means for a retailer’s insurance and safety planning is the pattern around violence. Auror’s Retail Crime Insights Report, cited through the Australian Retail Council (formed from the 2026 merger of the ARA and NRA), has previously reported a sharp year-on-year rise in weapons-involved retail crime, with incidents involving knives and blades increasing substantially. Griffith University’s 2024 ANZ Retail Crime Study, led by Professor Michael Townsley, put the direct cost of retail crime to the Australian sector at $7.79 billion in the 2023-24 financial year, almost 2 per cent of turnover, with losses up around 40 per cent over the prior two years.
One thing worth knowing before assuming you’re covered: standard business property policies generally require evidence of forcible entry to respond to a theft claim, and typically exclude shoplifting and unexplained stock shortages entirely.
What this means for the Black Friday and Christmas period specifically: peak trading concentrates exactly the conditions that make theft easier and confrontation more likely: crowded stores, distracted staff, higher stock volumes on the floor, and a higher proportion of newer staff less experienced at de-escalation. This is genuinely two separate risks, not one. A theft or confrontation involving a customer or another third party sits under public liability. An employee injured during an incident, whether through a physical confrontation or otherwise, sits under workers’ compensation instead. Worth reviewing both, not assuming one covers the other.
Scammers Target Your Brand, Not Just Your Customers
Most Christmas scam warnings are written for shoppers. Flip that around: legitimate retailers are a direct target too, not just a backdrop.
The most recent National Anti-Scam Centre data shows a genuinely mixed picture worth reading carefully rather than overstating. In the first quarter of 2026, Scamwatch reports fell 17.8 per cent and reported losses fell 17 per cent compared with the same period in 2025. Across the first half of 2026, Scamwatch logged around 91,800 reports and $156.6 million in losses. The National Anti-Scam Centre itself cautions against reading too much into a single quarter of data, and notes that online scams, fake websites, advertisements and social media, still drive the largest share of reported losses, even as overall volumes ease.
The NSW Small Business Commissioner issued a direct warning ahead of the 2025 Black Friday and Christmas period that criminals increasingly deploy fake online stores mimicking legitimate retailers, AI-generated advertisements redirecting customers to fraudulent payment pages, and counterfeit discount codes, all of which can damage a genuine retailer’s brand and customer trust even though the retailer did nothing wrong.
What this actually means for cover: most cyber insurance policies respond to an event on the insured’s own systems, a breach, an outage, a compromise of your own infrastructure. A criminal running a convincing fake copy of your store on infrastructure they control is a different scenario, and many policies simply won’t respond to it. The more practical, largely non-insurance steps are monitoring for lookalike domains, reporting fake sites to Scamwatch promptly, and warning customers directly when you become aware of an impersonation. Payment redirection fraud and chargeback exposure, where a scammer tricks a customer or your own business into redirecting a genuine payment, are more insurable risks worth confirming are covered.
Seasonal Staff Change Your Risk Profile, Not Just Your Payroll
Bringing on casual or seasonal staff to cover extended hours and higher customer volumes is a genuine shift in risk profile, not just a staffing top-up. Newer staff are less familiar with store layout, procedures, and the pace of a peak trading shift, which is worth reflecting in your induction process, incident reporting, emergency procedures and de-escalation basics, not just till training.
Two practical points worth checking specifically. Casual wages need to be declared accurately for workers’ compensation purposes, since premiums are calculated against actual remuneration, an underdeclaration discovered after an incident is a genuinely bad time to find it. And if any seasonal staff come through a labour hire arrangement rather than direct employment, confirm where responsibility for workers’ compensation and induction actually sits between your business and the labour hire provider, rather than assuming.
Stock Levels and Business Interruption: What’s Actually Worth Checking
Retailers typically carry significantly more stock through peak trading than at any other time of year. Some business policies automatically increase the stock sum insured by a set percentage during nominated peak periods, worth checking whether yours has this provision, what the percentage and dates actually are, and whether that uplift is genuinely enough for how much stock you’re carrying this year specifically.
Also worth checking: stock held at off-site storage, a pop-up location, or an overflow warehouse that isn’t listed on the policy at all, and whether cash holdings during the highest-cash-volume weeks of the year are adequately covered under your money cover limits.
On business interruption specifically, the real risk isn’t that the sum insured is “calculated using an average month”, BI sums insured are normally set against annual gross profit, and a claim is assessed against what the business would actually have earned during the affected period, so a December closure is properly measured against December trading, not an average month. The genuine risks worth checking are whether the annual gross profit figure underpinning your sum insured is current, and whether your indemnity period is long enough for a serious closure during your highest-revenue weeks, not whether the policy structure itself ignores seasonality.
A Practical Readiness Check
- Does your policy have a seasonal stock increase provision, and is the percentage and date range actually adequate for this year’s peak stock levels?
- Is your annual gross profit figure for business interruption purposes current, and is your indemnity period long enough for a serious closure during peak weeks?
- Have seasonal or casual staff received genuine induction on incident reporting, emergency procedures and de-escalation, not just till training, and have their wages been accurately declared for workers’ compensation?
- Do you know whether your current cover responds if your brand is impersonated by a fake online store, and do you have a plan to monitor for and report lookalike domains?
- Is your public liability limit adequate, are any pop-up stalls or temporary locations properly noted on the policy, and does a shopping centre landlord require a certificate of currency from you?
If more than one of these gives you pause, that’s worth a specific conversation with your broker before trading ramps up, not after.
Want a straightforward review of your retail, public liability, or business interruption cover before peak trading starts? Speak with Knightsbridge Insurance Group about your retail cover.
Important Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. Retail insurance requirements, including public liability, workers’ compensation, business interruption, and cyber cover, vary significantly based on individual businesses and insurers. Statistics referenced are drawn from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Victoria’s Crime Statistics Agency, the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, the Australian Retail Council, Griffith University, and the ACCC’s National Anti-Scam Centre, and reflect the most recently published data at the time of writing. Readers should assess their specific business risk and consult with qualified insurance professionals before making coverage decisions ahead of peak trading periods. Knightsbridge Insurance Group holds Australian Financial Services Licence 514855.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is retail theft actually getting worse in Australia, or does it just feel that way?
It’s a mixed picture. Nationally, theft fell 2 per cent in 2025, the first drop in five years, though retail locations still account for 43 per cent of all theft victims. In several states, including NSW and Victoria, retail theft specifically is still climbing or sitting at record levels even as broader crime figures ease.
Does my business insurance cover shoplifting or stock that goes missing without explanation?
Not necessarily, and this is worth confirming directly. Standard business property policies generally require evidence of forcible entry to respond to a theft claim, and typically exclude shoplifting and unexplained stock shortages.
Does public liability cover an employee injured during a theft confrontation?
No. Public liability covers customers and other third parties. An employee injured during an incident, including a theft-related confrontation, falls under workers’ compensation instead.
Can my insurance help if a scammer sets up a fake website pretending to be my store?
Often not directly. Most cyber policies respond to an event on your own systems, not to a criminal operating a fake copy of your store elsewhere. Practical steps like monitoring for lookalike domains and reporting fake sites to Scamwatch are usually more effective than relying on insurance for this specific risk.
Should I increase my stock sum insured just for peak trading?
Check first whether your policy already includes a seasonal stock increase provision, many do, and confirm the percentage and date range are genuinely adequate for your actual peak stock levels this year, rather than assuming a permanent increase is the only option.